Reform UK, USA News (London): A new poll shows that Reform UK has fallen to third place and now trails behind both the Labour Party and the Tories. Nigel Farage’s political party has fallen in popularity over recent weeks, with only 20% of pollers now saying they would elect the far-right group. However, this is the first time in 16 months that the Conservative Party has become Labour’s nearest rival, having been knocked off by Reform UK since June 2025. The data shows 32% of pollers would re-elect the government at the next General Election and are up five points from last month.
The data suggests Labour has surged to its largest lead this Parliament with 32% claiming they would re-elect this government in 2029. Seen as another ‘Burnham bounce’, the results were projected shortly after the Prime Minister suggested he would maintain talks and an ‘open door’ for a return to free movement with the EU. In an interview with The Sunday Times, Burnham said there needs to be an “honest discussion” over a return to free movement between the UK and EU ahead of a summit with the bloc next month.
At the same time, a new poll of 1,109 conducted by Ipsos between 15-22 October gave Labour an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, the largest lead they’ve had this Parliament. The poll put Labour on 32 per cent, up five points on last month, the Conservatives up three points on 24 per cent, and Reform UK down three points on 20 per cent. The Liberal Democrats were on nine per cent and the Green Party on eight.
Political Reactions and Debates
Following his appearance on BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, Reform MP for Newark Robert Jenrick reiterated his views on X, writing: “I’ll say it til I’m blue in the face: only British citizens should be entitled to benefits. We must put the British people first.” This comes after Reform UK plummeted in the polls to third place, having been ousted by the Conservative Party to become the nation’s more popular right-wing party. In January 2026, Mr Jenrick defected from the Tories to become a Reform MP.
Luke Tryl, Director of More in Common, took to X after a poll in The Economist showed that Reform UK had been overtaken by the Conservatives for the first time since January 2025. Tryl wrote that current Reform voters can broadly be split into two groups: true believers and those who simply want a right-wing government. He noted that the second group is much more transactional and will return to the Tories if they appear to be a viable vehicle to defeat Labour.
